The number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detainees surpassed 60,000 last week, according to internal data recently obtained by The New York Times. The figure marks a modern record and is the latest in a series of data points confirming some of the Trump administration’s claims about its campaign to curtail illegal immigration.
In April, the Department of Homeland Security reported that ICE had deported over 135,000 illegal immigrants and arrested over 151,000 since President Trump took office. Federal data released through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit and analyzed by The Guardian revealed lower, but still record-breaking numbers, with seven-day rolling averages of around 1,000 deportations a day by late April and around 58,100 actively detained at that time — levels not seen since Trump’s first term.
Migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have plummeted since Trump’s inauguration and first January executive order addressing immigration. According to federal data obtained by Axios, attempted migration across the U.S.-Mexico border was down sharply by February.
In a March 1 post on Truth Social, President Trump declared, “The Invasion of our Country is OVER.”
In mid-March, the Panamanian government released data showing that the number of migrants traveling through Panama’s perilous Darién Gap — a dangerous swath of jungle that migrants from South and Central America must travel through to get to the U.S. — had decreased to the lowest levels since the pandemic. The data also indicated that fewer South Americans overall were trying to reach the border in March than when Trump took office just weeks prior.
By the end of June, attempted crossings into the U.S. and encounters with Border Patrol were the lowest recorded in 25 years, according to figures recently released by the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The 25,228 border encounters reported that month represented a notable decline from January, when Customs and Border Protection Border Patrol recorded 29,100 attempts. June also marked the lowest number of daily apprehensions at the southern border in decades.
Trump wants the rate of deportations to increase. White House spokesperson Kush Desai told the Washington Post in April that “The entire Trump administration is aligned on delivering on” its goal of one million deportations a year for each of the four years of Trump’s term. The “Big, Beautiful Bill” signed into law by President Trump on July 4 is the signature piece of legislation meant to fund his deportation plan. Referring to the bill, administration spokesperson Abigail Jackson told NBC in May that “the Trump Administration is committed to providing the resources needed for law enforcement conducting the deportations.” It sets aside at least $170 billion for immigration enforcement and border security efforts, including $75 billion funding reserved exclusively for ICE, making it the government’s highest-funded law enforcement agency.
Trump has also moved to discourage legal forms of immigration and travel. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has announced intentions to update its forms again to collect social media handles and additional identification information from beneficiaries, applicants, and their family members in compliance with the enhanced vetting executive order, which could increase form completion and processing time. Green Card applicants may also face longer delays because of expanded interview requirements of applicants and reduced eligibility for interview waivers. USCIS has also stopped issuing green cards for refugees and approved asylum seekers.
In the agricultural sector, deportations have created labor shortages and have contributed to higher prices in grocery stores. Migrants often take jobs that are unglamorous but essential for the country’s operation, such as in construction, agriculture, hospitality and healthcare fields. Now, many have lost work status or have stopped coming because they’re worried about getting deported. The resulting pervasive atmosphere of fear among undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. has consequences: factories are facing staffing shortages, Labor Department figures show that food manufacturing employment has stagnated, and some farmers have reported instances of being unable to harvest their crops. Business and economics experts say consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the price. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported a 38.9% increase in wholesale vegetable prices from June to July, which is attributed to fewer migrant laborers.
Multiple analyses suggest that the ongoing immigration crackdown could also shrink the job market and slow down economic growth. The Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, predicts that if Trump hits his goal of deporting four million people within four years, both immigrant workers in the U.S. and U.S.-born workers would suffer job losses, particularly in construction and child care, to the tune of 3.3 million jobs held by immigrants and 2.6 million held by those born in the U.S. The Brookings Institution, another think tank, predicts that if Trump continues to restrict legal immigration, the economy could shrink 0.4 percentage point this year. Researchers from Goldman Sachs suggested that the impact on the economy depends on the scope of the immigration crackdown. If net immigration falls to levels a bit below the pre-pandemic average, as was the firm’s prediction as of February, “the impact on the economy is likely to be limited.” But, the report went on, “more significant restrictions on immigration…could have larger repercussions.”
Some critics of the administration have also expressed concern about the level of funds going toward immigration regulation. Democratic legislators described ICE’s budget management as “especially egregious,” saying the agency has quickly exceeded appropriated resources in the past. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will add substantially to the national deficit, adding $3.4 trillion in debt over 10 years, not including the cost of mass deportation. The deficit is currently nearly the size it was during World War II and is estimated by the Peter G Peterson Foundation to exceed it by 2029, leaving private investors worried about the security of the dollar’s position and prompting economist Jessicac Riedl from the conservative thinktank the Manhattan Institute to call the bill “one of the most irresponsible bills in memory.” In the months leading up to the bill’s passage, White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought claimed on Fox News that the bill actually reduced the national deficit, and Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham argued earlier this year that increasing ICE funding was essential so as to not to “rob other accounts”. Both claims are disputed by democratic and conservative economists.
For President Trump, falling immigration numbers, rising deportations and labor shortages in sectors where migrants play a big role are steps toward fulfilling his campaign promises to secure the border and open up more jobs for American citizens. But he faces a possible threat: Reduced labor, increased immigration hurdles and skyrocketing debt in a quick timeframe could lead to the backfiring of Trump’s claims of an expanded workforce for U.S.-born Americans. While early projections and anecdotes point to significant financial strain for the government and taxpayers, only time will tell whether the long-term effects of Trump’s immigration policy aid or inhibit American interests.